Dolphin Conjecture
Today
- Paths to knowledge
Distinguish the three classical paths to adopting an idea: authority, induction, and conjecture.
Mastery— - The real role of evidence
Recognise that evidence selects between conjectures rather than generating them.
Mastery— - Good explanations are hard to vary
Apply Deutsch's hard-to-vary criterion to tell good explanations from bad ones.
Mastery— - Easy-to-vary failure modes
Spot the four classic failure modes: post-hoc, narrow, vague, and empirically equivalent.
Mastery— - Fallibilism vs justificationism
Reject the demand to 'justify' knowledge; accept that all theories are tentative and open to criticism.
Mastery— - Conjecture and criticism
Run the Popperian engine: bold conjecture → severe test → improvement, in a small case.
Mastery— - Criticism along philosophy's three branches
Use methodological, ethical, and aesthetic criticism as three independent severity tests.
Mastery— - Capstone: evaluate an explanation
Given a real-world claim, run the full hard-to-vary + criticism workflow and rate it.
Mastery— - The principle of locality
State what 'local' means in physics and why classical physics is local by construction.
Mastery— - The EPR paradox
Reconstruct Einstein, Podolsky, and Rosen's argument that quantum mechanics is incomplete.
Mastery— - Bell's theorem
Walk through the inequality, what experiments measure, and which assumption gives way.
Mastery— - The Schrödinger equation
Read the equation as a deterministic linear law on a wave function in Hilbert space.
Mastery— - Many worlds
Take the wave function literally; understand why this preserves locality and determinism.
Mastery— - Tasks and substrates
Re-express physics in terms of which transformations can and cannot be performed on substrates.
Mastery— - Possible vs impossible
Use the possible/impossible dichotomy as a more fundamental ground than initial-conditions+laws.
Mastery— - Irreversibility from constructor theory
Derive the second law of thermodynamics as a fact about which tasks are reversible.
Mastery— - Information and substrate independence
See information as physical-but-substrate-independent; explain why digital computation works.
Mastery— - Preference scales
Treat economic value as ordinal preference revealed by chosen action under scarcity.
Mastery— - Scarcity and trade-offs
Read every choice as a trade-off across a margin; price as information about scarcity.
Mastery— - Knowledge, wealth, and institutions
Trace why a civilisation's growth tracks its tolerance for criticism and good explanations.
Mastery— - Rationality in business
Apply Popperian rationality to a business decision: bold conjecture, severe test, fast revision.
Mastery— - Final synthesis
Integration test across all four phases: read a claim and judge it on every dimension.
Mastery—