Rationality in business

Week 4: applied reason · civilization

Rationality in business

Apply Popperian rationality to a business decision: bold conjecture, severe test, fast revision.

In this lesson

  1. Read the core idea (3 min).
  2. Walk through one worked example.
  3. Take the 4-question quiz; pass with 4/4 or better.

Hook

An executive opens a strategy meeting: 'I've checked with three industry analysts, our biggest customer agrees, and the consensus on the leadership team is unanimous. We're going to triple our spend on Channel A next quarter.' Everyone nods. The plan ships.

Notice what just happened. The decision was justified by a stack of authorities — analysts, a customer, the team. It was not subjected to a severe test. No one said: 'What is the bold conjecture here, what would it predict, and how could we cheaply find out we are wrong before we triple the spend?' Logan Chipkin's Business module argues that this is the dominant failure mode in commercial decision-making, and that the cure is to import the Popperian engine intact.